Why GUN's success is important for crypto gaming as a category:
GC ALPHA 42
Disclaimer: None of this information should be taken as financial advice. DYOR + I will hold some of the assets that are spoken of in this newsletter.
(P2A) EVENTS & SOCIALFI
Forgotten Runiverse’s Early Access version is officially live
Project O’s first playtest (for holders) is kicking off tomorrow
Wonder Wars' main event #1 (P2A) is kicking off this Thursday
MARKET TALK
OFF THE GRID x BINANCE
In a surprise announcement last week, Gunzilla Games announced that its GUN token will launch on Binance on March 31st (today). Perhaps, a lifeline for crypto gaming?
Back in December, Gunzilla Games announced the GUNZ Foundation in partnership with Delphi Digital
Funny to see that they will launch in Q1 after all, it is just on the last day of this quarter
I saw some people arguing over the importance of this launch on CT. However, to me, it seems pretty apparent that the success or failure of GUN will have a strong effect on this whole industry (in the short term, at least)
Off the Grid remains the most-funded and most popular crypto-enabled game after all (excl. Night Crows if you count them). GUN’s performance will be a strong benchmark for the appetite for gametokens
Equally important, it might open Binance’s willingness to list more gaming tokens in the future. MapleStory Universe’s NXPC seems a strong contender
In 2024, we got around 8 gaming token listings on Binance, including PIXELS, NOT, PORTAL, ACE, XAI, SAGA, CATI, and HMSTR
If my memory serves right, HMSTR (Hamster Kombat) was the most recent listed one, back in late September 2024
Plus, GUN’s success can have positive effects on the funding climate…
On the token itself, GUN will launch at a 6.05% initial circulating supply, with 4% allocated to Binance launchpool rewards, liquidity unlocked, and a small % of the “KOL round” (tokenomics)
With such a low circulating supply, the team has a lot of control over the supply and can essentially “trade its own chart”, making a $1B FDV not too farfetched
However, we don’t know what these Binance whales will do with their GUN allocations, usually, these people don’t tend to hold very long onto launch pool rewards
As of yesterday, $15.8B+ from ~1.7M participants was staked in the pools, the highest dollar value in the last 9 months and the highest participant rate in the last 7 months
Arguably, the best narrative for crypto games is a huge (real) player base of millions of spending users, with value that accrues to the token
I wouldn’t be surprised if Off the Grid started using data marketing more aggressively post-launch, considering they haven’t shared much or anything about player numbers yet (outside of UAWs)
Strong player numbers + a chart that goes up will be validation of the narrative, and that’s when we can see GUN become a runner (think Heroes of Mavia)
Overall, we shouldn’t underestimate GUN’s success as a catalyst for a gaming season
ABSTRACT’S COMEBACK
Despite an underwhelming start caused by unfortunate timing, overblown expectations, and a lack of apps, Abstract is gradually coming together
This is not to say that the statistics are impressive yet, with a TVL of $14.3M. However, it's an accumulation of small improvements and observations worth noting, leading to a bigger push over time:
Abstract’s app ecosystem: Gigaverse, Gacha, Multiplier, Myriad, Buzz.fun, and Onchain Heroes are leading the pack (all very degen-oriented)
Updates: Abstract launched as an MMP, but is seeing regular and incremental updates. Lots of these updates accumulate to a platform with a much better UX
I expect Abstract’s biggest value adds (ease of onboarding, UX, and native streaming) to improve significantly in the next few months
The downside of building in the open is that you will get (overly) judged on your launch, and in the case of Abstract, they are playing the long game of slowly winning over users
Meme tokens: One sign of more liquid interest coming to the chain is shown by a few tokens that popped off recently, including NOOT, ABSTER, and CHENGU
On April 1st (tomorrow), Abstract will hold a “Fools Gold” 24-hour live stream (might be something)
Lastly, I’d be curious about the green chain’s GTM strategy and when they start pulling the strings of their Web2 connections more
But I’d imagine we will see that happen closer to when the ecosystem is more developed and can retain a larger % of the audience it tries to attract
ON THE RISE
Big announcement for Cambria coming today (probably S2)
MapleStory’s NXPC token is now listed on CMC (TGE soon?)
TRALA is bringing Game of Dice ($60M in cumulative revenue) to the blockchain