The state of Open Ronin...
GC ALPHA 51
Disclaimer: None of this information should be taken as financial advice. DYOR + I will hold some of the assets that are spoken of in this newsletter.
P2A & P2E EVENTS + SOCIALFI
Spellborne introduces Enchanted Guild Wars (250K BORNE prize pool)
MapleStory Universe NESO and EXP drop event for S2 (until June 18)
$160,000 in the prize pool for Tokyo Beasts' daily lottery rewards (code GA)
Season 1 of Tollan Universe is live ($3K prize pool + 70% of IAPs to the pool)
MARKET TALK
THE STATE OF OPEN RONIN
In recent months, the Ronin community has become increasingly vocal about its dissatisfaction with the current state of the chain. Today, we’re exploring why FUD has (seemingly) increased and how the Ronin team is handling that
Let’s start with the FUD:
The primary reason why people are unsatisfied is the underperformance of RON. But if the “price were up”, nobody would be complaining
RON and the entire gaming market are largely dependent on ETH and alt season. Unfortunately, this bull cycle has been entirely about BTC so far
Because of RON’s price, users are starting to “pocket watch” every move of the Ronin team, including this recent sell order of Trung
Trung responded that the team is playing long-term games with long-term people, and at times like this, it’s easier for opportunists to short and FUD
Secondly, people have shown dissatisfaction with the current state of open Ronin. This change was made back in February
So far, a couple of studios that migrated to Ronin have shut down. And even worse, Legends of Elumia created the impression it was coming to Ronin, sold an NFT collection, and is now launching on Immutable
Not to mention the Ragnarok: Monster World debacle
These events have people second-guessing the chain’s move to an open state. Plus, the underperformance of RON is only fuel to the fire
The Ronin audience was more isolated from studio closures, “extractive” actors, and ponzus when the chain was still selective in which games it brought on. Maybe, the audience is still used to this type of “consumer protection” from Ronin
This is not to say that pre-open Ronin games aren’t at risk of closing down. However, the studios in that cohort generally have better fundamentals
For a bunch of post-open games, Ronin could have been that final attempt to make it work
I remain confident that a few Ronin projects will succeed, and that overall Ronin sentiment will improve. Additionally, Sky Mavis still has its biggest bet, Atia’s Legacy
GAMING TOKEN SENTIMENT (MAY UPDATE)
Yesterday, I posted another update on the reality of gaming tokens (through the lens of 2025 TGEs). Here are the highlights and some additional thoughts:
Data from the 1st of June:
Total launches ~50 (tracking 37)
Average decrease in market cap of 69% (previously 65%) compared to ATH
Average market cap: ~$18.9M (previously $14.3M)
$18.9M becomes $9.23M (-51%) if you exclude the 2 largest market caps: NXPC and SONIC
12+ tokens with a market cap of $2M or below*
This number is more likely to be in the 20+ range, as many of the micro-caps were excluded from the tracking list
Largest token by market cap: NXPC $232.7M (previously B3 with $116.9M)
Largest token by FDV: NXPC $1.34B (previously SONIC with $727.5M)
You can find the complete data from May 2nd here
In a future update, I will add volume as well (recommendation from Loopify)
The delight of May was, of course, MapleStory Universe’s NXPC launch. Blowing all TGEs of 2025 and maybe even 2024 (with some exceptions) out of the water
While these numbers were a narrative changer, gaming sentiment remains “so-so”. TGT’s token launch was surprising, for instance, opening at a ~$160M FDV
However, less than 2 weeks later, TGT is already trading at an 80% discount. And it is common to see these aggressive down-only charts post-TGE in the gaming sector (and in general, tbh, look at DOOD)
As many of these studios’ last hopes to generate revenue through their token fall apart. It wouldn’t be surprising if many of these $2M small caps either shut down or divest from crypto gaming
I would like to say there’s some light at the tunnel, however, the token launch landscape continues to be brutal…
