Disclaimer: None of this information should be taken as financial advice. DYOR + I will hold some of the assets mentioned in this newsletter.
MARKET TALK
REAPER ACTUAL’S EARLY ACCESS “FLOPS”
Last week, the “next-gen open-world PvP extraction shooter” Reaper Actual (RA) released its Foundation Build. Through buying a bundle on EGS (starting at $30), players were able to get access to the first public release (Alpha) of the game
However, people quickly found out the Alpha Build wasn’t ready for the public, and it certainly wasn’t ready to be streamed. So, when Twitter realized RA was paying one of the largest streamers in gaming, Timthetatman, that created a huge uproar
This is one of the clips that shows how many bugs are still in this game
Payton played the game himself and agreed that it was too early (someone who’s usually standing up for the builder crowd):
“There is no second “first impression”. Gamers will look at this…leave, and never come back”
Lemz also chimed in on the conversation:
“I hate to say it, but it’s giving me Shrapnel PTSD when everyone thought the game was much further along and then people were disappointed”
The RA “fiasco” highlights a couple of things for me:
“AAA” gaming (in marketing speak) in crypto is dead:
Off the Grid just laid off staff, Shrapnel was bought out by the Chinese government, and a myriad of other big-shot studios, with large development budgets, never brought anything lasting to this space
These games can’t compete with “real” AAA games, whilst also failing to interest CT
The only success in crypto gaming we’ve seen so far either came from indie, A, or AA titles
Building in the open doesn’t come without its drawbacks:
RA started development a little over 2 years ago and came out of stealth in July. Considering this build, they should’ve stayed in stealth for another one to two years. Building in the open is a double-edged sword
This is also why I liked FDF’s approach of having a playable product on D1 of its public launch (open beta release). Yet, you could argue that a product like FDF has a much shorter development cycle
The team seems pretty oblivious to building in crypto:
Firstly, it’s hard to see what the goal was of paying Timthetatman. Was it getting eyeballs? Converting more people to buy a Foundation Bundle? Collecting sentiment data? The primary selling point of the game, base defending/raiding, wasn’t even available yet
Treating this as an open (free) community playtest with some light rewards would’ve been a better option imo
Secondly, the infamous quote from the PC Gamer article:
“and I couldn’t get funding to make this dream game that’s been in my head for 10 years.”
Overall, we got another reason for outsiders and insiders to talk down on the industry. But seriously…we’ve gone through all of this (or maybe RA isn’t aware?)
Regardless of my criticisms, I still hope this game can move this industry forward at some point
97% OF GAMING TOKEN LAUNCHES HAVE FAILED
A few days ago, I posted another update on the state of the crypto gaming market through the lens of TGEs in 2025. For this article, I took a different approach by looking at the data at a more granular level. This newsletter will summarize the findings (previous updates: Q1, May, July, and August)
Overview of the data:
Total launches: 85+, tracking 71
Q3 has been the busiest quarter, and July has been the single busiest month so far
At this rate, we’ll likely climb past 100 launches this year, meaning we’ll end at a similar number of launches as 2024
Average decrease in market cap compared to ATH: 72%
Slightly up (or would you say down?) from the 69% of the August update
Average mcap: ~$16.7M
Through the year, the average market cap has ranged between $13M - $17M
The distribution of the market is top-heavy, with 3 tokens above a $100M, 6 tokens in the $10 - $70M market cap range, and all other tokens below $10M market cap
Average 24h volume: $17.4M
Volume is heavily skewed by the largest tokens, as by excluding the top three, the average becomes $4.8M
The data of the top tokens (by volume) is also influenced by incentivized trading campaigns and new listings
33+ tokens with a market cap below $2M
Considering this list also excludes a bunch of the micro micro caps, this number is likely closer to 50
Many of the already “ded” tokens slowly continue to trend towards 0
Largest token by mcap: SOMI ($133.3M)
Followed by KGEN, NXPC, B3, CROSS, SONIC, ARIAAI, and GUN
Many of the “big caps” of this cycle include infrastructure and ecosystem tokens (like the broader crypto gaming market)
Largest token by FDV: SOMI ($832.3M)
Market cap of all gaming tokens: $17.7B (according to CMC)
Interestingly, with crypto’s “Black Friday”, the total market cap dropped to ~$9B for a second (-51%). Today, it recovered to ~$14.4B, down 20% WoW
Overall, it’s a gloomy look for (new and existing) gaming tokens, and with the recent sell-off, it looks like many of the already irrelevant tokens will continue to trend to the abyss. Yet, the recovery of the market has been quite rapid, so far
ON THE RISE
Pudgy Strategy expands to Igloo Strategy with Onchain Heroes and $HEROSTR
Is Cambria launching soon? (check their profile)