Disclaimer: None of this information should be taken as financial advice. DYOR + I will hold some of the assets that are spoken of in this newsletter.
(P2A) EVENTS & SOCIALFI
Market Wars launched its Open Beta
During the Beta, you can earn limited items and skins, plus there’s a $10,000 prize pool
Lumiterra launched its Sprint Event
It’s a 1-month event happening on the Degame platform, where you earn points by completing various tasks (lasting until February 8)
Arena of Faith launched ACP Wars with 5M ACP in prizes
Each season lasts 14 days (this one lasts until Jan 20), and you can spend to increase your airdrop earnings
77-bit introduces its Bithub, where you can start mining Bites
Bytes are a platform reward currency, which will likely convert to tokens at a later stage (“depending on your status”)
Cyberverse is an MMORPG that recently joined Ronin
During the Beta, you can earn the game’s token CYPX (P2E)
Spellborne launched PvP Leagues Era 2 (lasting until Jan 31)
Sonzai Labs is releasing its Diamond Genesis Pass soon (Raiden ref link)
Not a P2A necessarily, but playing the game and applying on their website will be your best chance to get a WL spot
MARKET TALK
IT’S GAMING SEASON
We saw early signs of the gaming season's return in December. Now, we can confidently say we've entered this glorious period
Early signs in Dec: OCH mint, return of gaming NFTs, and two $500K P2A campaigns
December’s momentum has soared to greater heights this January. Especially, the first few TGEs of this year were surprising (excl. PVP and WANDER):
SONIC ~$271M MC and trading at a $1.8B FDV
SERAPH ~$20M MC and trading at $181.5M FDV
XTER ~$41M MC and trading at a $361M FDV
I do have to add that both SONIC and XTERIO didn’t hold their post-launch valuations, assumingly due to a lack of demand for the tokens (at these high prices)
SERAPH for instance opened at a $700-$800M FDV and is already down over 74% in less than a week (reminds me of token launches last year)
Additionally, we’re seeing floats of 10-15% and CEX-centered launches again, in contrast to the more community-driven TGEs (higher floats + DEXes) when market sentiment was down in Q3 + early Q4 2024
Outside of tokens, NFTs continue to show momentum for the reasons of 1) being token vouchers, 2) being an asset to gain additional exposure, and 3) alignment with the AI narrative
Notable gainers include Hytopia Worlds, Infinipasses, GLHFers, RGBytes, Fableborne Primordials, and Nexian Gems
Some of the “moon math” actually becomes feasible, considering these high FDVs, therefore, token vouchers for small Genesis collections of the best projects become very interesting
Overall, I am not going to bid at new TGEs, but look at ways to increase my exposure to (the best) upcoming tokens pre-TGE due to the high FDV potential
This can be through NFTs, but also P2As, multi-farms, etc.
THE ABSTRACT (GAMING) PLAYBOOK
If there’s someone you should be following for gaming Alpha it’s Hunter Solaire:
Two days ago he posted this “how im planning to print on abstract before the token goes live”
In summary, his Abstract (gaming) playbook comes down to deeply focusing on a few apps (especially skill-based games)
He mentions DUPER, Gigaverse, OCH, Multiplier, and Monsters.Fun
On skill-based games he further mentions:
“strategy sits at the core of games like duper or och so no matter how hyped these become, you will have an edge by just being better than your opponents regardless of their dollar investment”
Why the deep focus and not going wide? Abstract often mentions that “farmers will get smoked”, so a fair assumption is that value-adding (deeper) behavior will be rewarded over shallow interactions
I assume Abstract will take a page (or a few pages) out of the Blast Gold playbook with its incentive campaign, however, make it less easy to earn points
I expect a similar weighted distribution model, layered incentives, but incentives that focus more on “meaningful” conversion and retention than “running volume” and SocialFi
Think leaderboards, tiers and divisions, achievement systems, and personalized progression, running over longer periods
Simply running volume through apps such as typical DeFi airdrop campaigns (e.g. HYPE) will likely be less of a priority for Abstract
The Blast Gold campaign was well-designed, however, when Blast TGE’d, and the price was super underwhelming, 90%+ lost interest naturally
Blast largely lost momentum before they TGE’d and real users felt farmed by the chain. So there needs to be a magic TGE moment where momentum, farmer churn, and real user engagement coincide
Whether this is 1 month, 3 months, or 6 months, idk
Maybe…Abstract will feel more than an onchain identity protocol than a chain-wide points program
Think tailored incentives based on your onchain and concepts like proof of ownership (again, I am just speculating)
What can you do right now?
Aim for those highly sought-after WL spots for upcoming NFT collections (like those mentioned above)
Wait for Abstract mainnet…
ON THE RISE
Animecoin is coming this January, with 50.5% going to the community