Another $500K P2A campaign?
GC ALPHA 29
Disclaimer: None of this information should be taken as financial advice. DYOR + I will hold some of the assets that are spoken of in this newsletter.
(P2A) EVENTS & SOCIALFI
Rumble Kong League officially soft-launched its game on the app stores
“Our promise to all with this launch is that we want to see a small # earning BIG. Smaller "winners" at the top (competition), higher rewards for them.”
There is a League point system, which rewards players at the end of each 3-day cycle
Kokodi Arena S1 is live (for holders)
Earn points in the quick match mode - rewards include tokens, NFTs, invite codes, and more
Petopia launched its Hall of Fame leaderboard on Sophon
Compete in quests and game modes for a $150,000 prize pool. Only the top 50 will earn prizes, including NFTs, tokens, and more
The Beacon introduced the Year of the Snake Speedrun Tournament
Prizes include $10K MAGIC in prizes, participation trophies, and exclusive cosmetics
GOAT Gaming releases GOAT Wars, a war-themed merge 3 game on Telegram
MARKET TALK
FABLEBORNE’S $500K+ P2A CAMPAIGN
Last week, Fableborne shared the impressive numbers of its P2A campaign: 803 years in playtime, over $500K in revenue, and more than 3.5M raids
Just a week before Infinigods shared the numbers on their $500K P2A campaign
I assume this type of in-depth data marketing will only become more prevalent (in case the numbers are impressive)
So, let’s get into the numbers and how Fableborne compares vs. Infinigods:
149K players with a peak DAU of 108K a D1 RR of 70.8% and a D14 RR of 37.3%
These numbers are mentioned to rival top mobile gaming benchmarks, but I’d argue the numbers are incentivized
Infinigods had a very similarly sized player base of 142K
22,150 Fortune Passes were sold, generating over 221,500 RON or $540,000+
Fableborne’s monetization model for this campaign was broad, as 1 account = 1 Fortune pass = 10 RON per account (ARPPU of $20)
In contrast, Infingods monetization was very deep, with an ARPPU of $700, but with only less than 1,000 paying users
Both campaigns employed the “pay to airdrop” model, whereas users could increase their (potential) rewards by spending $ or RON
Last but not least, the post also mentions bigger updates to gameplay are coming, and more innovation to POWER and NFTs
Overall, it’s great to see Fableborne, accomplish these strong metrics, and these types of (mini) case studies add validity to the Web2.5 business model
PREDICTIONS FOR 2025
In early December we talked about Delphi’s predictions for 2025. I am largely aligned with these predictions, however, would like to make some of my own as well
But first, here are Raiden’s Web3 gaming predictions for 2025:
Abstract, Berachain, and Monad will have a strong gaming momentum/hype
A gaming TGE will be super successful and push the narrative once again and bring liquidity in (similar to the FOMO that happened post-portal TGE)
Many games will die, many many, probably a lot more than in 2024 (lack of $$)
A transition from Telegram games to Discord games
My predictions (link to 2024 predictions):
P2A continues to mature: studios will increasingly leverage these events to effectively monetize the attention (i.e. “pay to airdrop”)
DEX > CEX: projects will continue to experiment with token GTM strategies, especially as the “fight for player liquidity” is expected to become brutal in 2025
GameFi lives on: Onchain Heroes clearly shows the appeal of degen-oriented games with DeFi loops. This category of games will continue to succeed, as long as they have some staying power and are not blatant Ponzis
Pixels cracks the P2E code: Pixels has one of the most mature Web3 game economies. They invested a lot in player and reputation data and are acquiring new games for their ecosystem
If they can effectively tap into net-spend audiences through their acquisition strategy I believe they will solve the P2E code in 2025
Gaming NFTs: Gaming NFTs will have increased mindshare in 2025 because teams are willing to innovate, gaming will be better positioned, and more users will understand that PFP projects haven’t done anything
So many PFP projects launching tokens won’t end well
Infrastructure: Infra will continue to be commoditized, many games will try to go the infra route, as we’re already seeing this year, but only the best ones will succeed
Additionally, the major gaming chains (Ronin, AVAX, XAI, etc.) will continue to attract the best games
I’d have to add that “infra” does not always mean having your own publishing blockchain but can exist in different formats (e.g. Power Protocol)
Overall, I am pretty bullish on gaming in 2025 and expect this year to be one with a lot of major events that will push the industry forward. Furthermore, I am also aligned with Raiden’s take that many studios will have to close down in 2025
ON THE RISE
Wilder World releases an 18-minute gameplay trailer
It seems like they have done a lot of work, and on the other hand, it seems like another 3+ years of work to make this a complete game
Ronin announced Community Gaming’s prediction market FORKAST is joining the ecosystem